CZ Says Bitcoin 'Supercycle' Hasn't Arrived as Four-Year Cycle Holds

Speaking alongside SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium on 19 Aug, Zhao acknowledged that the supercycle he called for in January had not arrived. A supercycle, he told Scaramucci – whose SALT co-hosts the symposium with Kraken – would mean Bitcoin keeps growing rather than experiencing the big rises and falls seen in previous cycles.

"I feel like a supercycle would be like a way we continue to grow," he said. "The supercycle, obviously today where we're going... that supercycle kind of didn't come."

From Davos to Jackson Hole

Zhao first made the call in a January 2026 interview with CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin at the World Economic Forum in Davos, arguing that a more pro-crypto stance in the US and other countries could break Bitcoin's usual four-year cycle in 2026. He walked back the view in early February as markets turned choppy, and his remarks in Wyoming are his clearest public acknowledgement that the call has not materialised.

His comments come after Bitcoin fell sharply over the past year. Bitcoin was trading at around $69,400 on 19 Aug, down 21% since the start of the year and about 45% from its 2025 record high of around $126,000.

"If you look at the data today, the price of Bitcoin, we're in a very strict four-year cycle," Zhao said.

Supercycle could still happen

Bitcoin has historically gone through major bull and bear markets around every four years. The pattern roughly follows Bitcoin's halving schedule, which cuts the amount of new Bitcoin given to miners in half around every four years.

The most recent halving happened in April 2024, when the reward fell from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. The next halving is expected in April 2028, when the reward will fall again to about 1.5625 BTC.

But Zhao has not given up on the idea that Bitcoin could eventually break out of this pattern. When Scaramucci asked directly whether he thought Bitcoin would eventually enter a supercycle, Zhao said, "I do."

"I think that also the cycles are becoming flatter," Zhao said, pointing to 2017, when Bitcoin climbed from around $1,000 to nearly $20,000, as an example of the much bigger gains seen in earlier cycles.

Zhao said those jumps should become smaller as Bitcoin and the wider crypto market grow. He noted that the crypto market is currently worth around $2tn, citing CoinMarketCap data, and used a hypothetical $200tn future market to make his point.

"Let's say it gets to $200 trillion, the fluctuations will become much more less pronounced," Zhao said. He added that investor behaviour could be one reason Bitcoin keeps following the same pattern.

"For whatever reason, I think human memory is maybe two years still," he said. "After two years, we forget, and everyone forgets. And at some point, somebody starts to sell, and everyone gets panic sell."

Long view on CLARITY

While Zhao said Bitcoin is still following its four-year cycle, he remains bullish on crypto over the longer term. When Scaramucci asked whether he was hopeful about the US, Zhao said, "Absolutely."

He said the current US environment is the most favourable for crypto that he has seen in 12 years. Zhao also discussed the CLARITY Act, a market-structure bill that would split crypto oversight between the SEC and the CFTC, which passed the House 294-134 in July 2025. While he said he was not an expert on the bill, he added that the industry's longer-term growth does not depend on whether the current version passes.

The bill is currently stalled in the Senate, with lawmakers still divided over issues including ethics rules. The Senate is scheduled to hold a cloture vote on 15 Sep to open floor debate – a procedural step that requires 60 votes. The bill and its chances of passing have been a major topic of discussion at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium this week.

"If you take a five-, 10-year view, there's going to be multiple acts that's going to be passed, and there's going to be multiple laws," Zhao said.

Beyond the US, Zhao pointed to growing blockchain adoption in other countries, including Pakistan, where he serves as an adviser. He said the country is "fully embracing blockchain."

"While the prices kind of fluctuate, et cetera, but the adoption is happening," Zhao said. "So this is why, based on what I see, I'm super bullish."