Market Snapshot
Asian equity markets opened higher on 10 Aug, extending a rally that has global stocks trading close to record highs. Crypto markets have also gained, with Bitcoin trading just $2,000 below its 8-week high, though total market capitalization remains stuck at about $2.2tn – almost 50% below last year's peak.
Macro Summary
The macro calendar is lighter this week following last week's run of central bank decisions. Geopolitics in the Middle East will continue to set the tone: on Sunday, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi warned that the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed "until the United States puts an end to the violations of the memorandum of understanding [signed in June] and rectifies what it has violated."
On the data front, US inflation figures, followed by output data from the euro area and the UK, will be the main focal points. China and Japan are also due to release information about July's monetary conditions.
Recap
- Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) and Crypto.com terminated an arrangement to establish a Cronos (CRO) treasury and embed Crypto.com’s prediction markets in the TMTG social media platform. The US president’s ethics around crypto businesses remains a point of debate around the CLARITY Act, a delayed market structure bill. Senators are awaiting a potential procedural vote on the bill in mid-September.
- A slew of corporate regulatory announcements showed interest in the US and UK markets. Crypto market-maker Wintermute's US affiliate registered as a broker-dealer in the US. While exchange operator Coinbase said it will provide US equity trading to users in the UK inside the same app they use for crypto. Robinhood registered with the UK financial regulator potentially enabling the US-based platform to begin crypto trading services for Brits.
- A new Ethereum proposal would gradually lower staking rewards as more Ether (ETH) is staked, sparking a debate in the Ethereum community over whether the network already has enough staked.
- The ongoing corporate earnings season has highlighted how companies trying to move away from Bitcoin mining are strangled by accounts that log the poor performance of BTC in the firms’ figures. Amid a quarterly earnings report all about its push into AI, MARA Holdings (MARA) disclosed that the number of bitcoins it held at the end of June was down 29% compared with a year earlier. Two other miners of the original cryptocurrency, Hyperscale Data (GPUS) and PowerCompute (PWCM), borrowed against their BTC treasuries rather than selling the coins or issuing new shares.
- SpaceX, which held Wall Street’s largest ever IPO in mid-June, reported a $540mn accounting decline in the value of its Bitcoin holdings, clouding a stronger-than expected revenue figure. Hut 8 (HUT), majority owner of American Bitcoin (ABTC), suffered $138.6mn of unrealized losses based on a non-cash markdown of its Bitcoin holdings. The subsidiary itself, which was co-founded by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr, posted its third consecutive quarterly loss as a result of the writedown.
- Meanwhile, falling crypto prices also marked down Galaxy Digital’s (GLXY) treasury, contributing to a $85mn net loss for the second quarter. Jack Dorsey’s Block raised full-year profit guidance even though Q2 net income slumped due to a Bitcoin remeasurement loss and other factors. Among the other crypto-related corporate earnings, Circle raised its full-year revenue forecast on expected proceeds from tokens linked to its new stablecoin-focused blockchain, even as the firm’s Q2 revenue came up short.
- Some non-native crypto firms continued to show a strong interest in digital assets. Franklin Templeton, which oversees in total $1.79tn, became the largest asset manager to join the Canton Network as a Super Validator, deepening its role in blockchain infrastructure for tokenization. Samsung Electronics said it will begin adding stablecoin accounts, cross-border transfers and in-store payments to Samsung Wallet this year, starting with a limited group of countries.
Top Gainers
- PUMP (Pump.fun) +28%
- ZRO (LayerZero) +17%
- CRV (Curve DAO Token) +17%
Top Losers
- INJ (Injective) -15%
- CC (Canton) -14%
- CRO (Cronos) -13%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $2.21tn (+1.8% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 58.9% (vs 58.5% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 39/100 (vs 34 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 37/100 (vs 58 last week)
ETF Flows
- BTC (Bitcoin): +$865.3mn (vs -$61.5mn previous week)
- ETH (Ether): +$234.7mn (vs +$10mn previous week)
Futures (CME)
- BTC (Bitcoin): $65,205 (+4.1%) (as at Friday close)
- ETH (Ether): $1,921.5 (+3.2%) (as at Friday close)
This week, we’ll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 10 August
Crypto event (token unlock)
Avalanche (AVAX) Token Unlock: 1.67mn AVAX, worth roughly $10.7mn. The unlock introduces additional supply into the market, although its relatively modest size compared with AVAX's circulating supply should limit the potential impact on price.
Tuesday 11 August
Economic data
- 23:50 Japan broad money, M2 money supply statistics for July: Japan’s M2 is a proxy for global liquidity because yen funding conditions affect cross-border capital flows into global markets. Changes in M2 therefore signal shifts in global liquidity and risk appetite.
Wednesday 12 August
Economic data
- 12:30 US CPI: July's inflation figures are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As one of the Fed’s two mandates (the other being employment), inflation figures guide decisions on interest rates and broader monetary policy. Economists polled by Reuters expect inflation to be up 0.1% in July from month earlier.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- WhiteBIT (WBT) Token Unlock: 5.56mn WBT, worth roughly $309.8mn. The unlock is exceptionally large in dollar terms and could introduce significant new supply, potentially creating elevated short-term selling pressure.
- Aptos (APT) Token Unlock: 11.31mn APT, worth roughly $6.7mn. The unlock adds a moderate amount of new supply and could generate modest short-term selling pressure, although its impact should remain limited relative to APT's broader circulating supply.
Thursday 13 August
Economic data
- 06:00 UK output: Office for National Statistics (ONS) releases GDP figures for Q2 along with services, industrial output and manufacturing output data. Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, noted after the BoE kept its rates on hold that "the labour market continues to ease, and the demand environment remains soft."
- 12:30 US unemployment claims: Initial jobless claims data for the week ending 6 Aug follow a small increase of 2,000 in unemployment benefits to a seasonally adjusted 199,000 in the week ending 1 Aug.
Friday 14 August
Economic data
- 10:00 euro area GDP, employment: Eurostat publishes GDP figures, along with employment numbers for Q2. The preliminary flash estimate for the Q2 output growth was 1.0% on a yearly basis.
- 12:30 US retail sales: the U.S. Census Bureau publishes figures for July. Retail sales are one of the key indicators as they reflect consumer spending, one of the largest components of US economy. Changes in retail sales signal shifts in economic momentum, inflation pressure, and the outlook for monetary policy. Economists polled by Reuters expect retail sales to have grown by 0.2% in July, same as in June.
- China total social financing, M2 money supply, new loans: The state financing statistics for July capture overall credit and liquidity conditions. Changes in this release signal shifts in China’s growth momentum, policy stance, and broader global risk sentiment. Total social financing is expected to be ¥1,200bn ($178bn) in July, down from the ¥3,360bn ($500bn) in June, according to economists polled by Reuters.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Pump.fun (PUMP) Token Unlock: 6.88bn PUMP, worth roughly $15.8mn. The sizeable token release could create moderate short-term selling pressure, particularly if recipients choose to sell a portion of their unlocked tokens.
Saturday 15 August
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Starknet (STRK) Token Unlock: 225.87mn STRK, worth roughly $5.7mn. The unlock represents a meaningful addition to circulating supply and could generate modest short-term selling pressure.
Sunday 16 August
Crypto event (token unlock)
- Arbitrum (ARB) Token Unlock: 93.16mn ARB, worth roughly $7.3mn. The unlock introduces a meaningful amount of additional supply and could create modest short-term selling pressure if recipients distribute tokens into the market.
