More than 80% of Bitcoin's circulating supply has not moved for at least 180 days, leaving the share of recently active coins near an all-time low, according to Coin Metrics data. Approximately 16.4mn of Bitcoin's 20.06mn circulating coins had remained dormant for six months or longer. That places the 180-day dormant-supply ratio at 81.7%, the highest reading ever. Put differently, just 18.3% of Bitcoin's supply, or roughly 3.68mn BTC, has moved within the previous six months.
Older coins tend to be held by investors with a lower willingness to sell. When a growing share of supply moves into long-term hands, the number of Bitcoin actively circulating through the market declines. If demand strengthens while that supply remains dormant, even a relatively modest increase in buying can, on that logic, have an outsized effect on price.
What the metric measures
Long-term holder metrics attempt to separate coins held by more committed investors from those circulating among shorter-term traders. A commonly used threshold classifies Bitcoin as long-term held once it has remained unmoved for approximately 155 days. The logic is probabilistic rather than absolute: the longer a coin remains dormant, the lower the historical likelihood that its owner will spend it in the near term.
The measure used here applies a slightly stricter 180-day threshold, calculating the share of circulating Bitcoin that has not moved during the previous six months as current supply minus 180-day active supply, divided by current supply. It is not a perfect measure of the tradable float. A dormant holder can still sell tomorrow, while a coin that moved yesterday may simply have transferred between two wallets controlled by the same person. Nevertheless, the ratio provides a useful approximation of how much Bitcoin is actively changing hands versus sitting in older wallets.
Chart
Source: Coin Metrics
The current reading is historically rare. Excluding Bitcoin's earliest years, when nearly all supply was inactive because the network itself was new, the ratio has crossed above 80% only three times.
The first measurable crossing occurred on 27 Sep 2023, when Bitcoin traded near $26,336. One month later, BTC was up 28.7%. The return expanded to 64.9% after three months, 163% after six months and 149.7% after one year.
The second crossing came on 29 Sep 2024, with Bitcoin trading around $65,618. Subsequent returns were again positive across every measured period: BTC gained 10.8% over one month, 42.4% over three months, 25.7% over six months and 74.3% over one year.
The current episode began on 29 Jun 2026, when Bitcoin traded near $60,175. By 27 July, it had risen roughly 5.9%.
The previous signals did not occur in isolation
The historical results appear strongly bullish, but two previous observations are not enough to establish a reliable standalone trading signal. More importantly, the market environment was different during both earlier episodes. The September 2023 crossing occurred during the build-up towards the approval of US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products. By the time dormant supply reached its previous peak in December 2023, the market was approaching a major structural shift in demand. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved several spot Bitcoin products on 10 Jan 2024, opening a new channel through which traditional investors could gain exposure.
The dormant-supply ratio did not cause the subsequent rally by itself. It created the supply conditions through which a new demand source could have a larger price impact. The September 2024 crossing also took place after the ETF market had already been established. Bitcoin was no longer dependent only on crypto-native exchanges and existing holders. It had access to a broader pool of institutional and traditional investment capital.
That distinction is critical. A low active float represents potential scarcity, but scarcity only becomes bullish when buyers compete for the limited supply available. The current market has the supply-side setup. More than four-fifths of Bitcoin has not moved for six months, suggesting that holders have remained unusually reluctant to spend their coins. However, the ratio alone cannot determine whether this reflects strong conviction or weak market participation, a question this article's companion analysis took up from the demand side nine days earlier, and found no clear answer either.
Dormant supply needs a demand catalyst
Bitcoin's current float structure is historically tight. Previous crossings above 80% were followed by substantial gains, with both earlier episodes producing positive returns across one, three, six and twelve-month horizons. Still, the strongest conclusion is not that Bitcoin must repeat those returns. The more defensible takeaway is that Bitcoin has become increasingly sensitive to changes in demand. If new capital enters while long-term holders continue to hold, buyers may need to bid prices higher to convince existing owners to sell.
Without stronger demand, dormant supply can remain dormant while price moves sideways or lower. The supply conditions for a squeeze are present. The next question is whether demand will arrive strongly enough to activate it.
